The Republican election victory last week was fueled by opposition to President Obama’s economic and domestic initiatives, but it could undo his central foreign policy achievement, his new partnership with Russia, and embolden anti-American hawks in Moscow.
In forging a friendlier relationship with the Kremlin after years of tension, Mr. Obama needs Congress to sign off on three major policy changes: an arms control treaty to reduce nuclear arsenals and resume inspections; a civilian nuclear agreement to permit greater cooperation; and a repeal of cold war-era trade restrictions so Russia can join the World Trade Organization.
Persuading Congress to approve any of those was already daunting when Democrats had control of both houses, but with Republicans taking over the House and bolstering forces in the Senate, all of these initiatives appear in jeopardy. If Mr. Obama cannot deliver on his promises, American officials and foreign policy specialists fear it will rupture the so-called reset policy and validate Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin and other hard-liners who have been skeptical of the rapprochement.
In the days since the election, Russian officials have already threatened to shelve the New Start arms control treaty. Mr. Obama has decided to make a concerted push to persuade the departing Senate to approve the treaty in a lame-duck session this month. The president brought it up last week, along with extending middle-class tax cuts, as his biggest priorities for the session.
“This is not a traditionally Democratic or Republican issue but rather an issue of American national security,” Mr. Obama said. “And I am hopeful that we can get that done before we leave and send a strong signal to Russia that we are serious about reducing nuclear arsenals, but also sending a signal to the world that we’re serious about nonproliferation.”
If he fails to win approval before the old Senate adjourns, Mr. Obama’s advisers and allies worry that the relationship with Russia will be frozen at a time when they consider it critical to increase Russian cooperation on several fronts, most notably pressuring Iran to give up its nuclear program.
“If that goes down, everything else is on ice,” said Samuel Charap, an analyst at the Center for American Progress, a liberal research organization. Cooperation on Iran, nonproliferation, Afghanistan and terrorism could be affected, he said. “None of that, zero, is going to happen. It really could have a major effect.”
Within the administration, a nightmare scenario envisions even worse consequences. Russian leaders traditionally have looked for weakness in American counterparts, and Mr. Obama’s failure to impose his will on Congress would be seen as a sign of impotence. That could undercut President Dmitri A. Medvedev, who has made the improved relationship between Russia and the United States a centerpiece of his tenure despite Mr. Putin’s doubts. If the reset comes undone, some analysts suggested it would hurt Mr. Medvedev’s chances of persuading Mr. Putin to let him run for a second term in 2012. It could embolden those in the security establishment who want to keep close ties with Iran. By some estimates, Russia’s decision to go along with sanctions on Iran could cost as much as $13 billion in arms sales.
Most important among those abandoned sales was the transfer of a sophisticated S-300 anti-aircraft system to Tehran that Mr. Medvedev blocked. If relations with the United States deteriorate and Moscow resumed the sale, security specialists said it could provoke Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear program before the S-300 missiles are delivered because, once in place, they would make it far more dangerous for attacking warplanes.
Skeptics of the New Start treaty say the administration overstates the chances that Russia would pull away if the pact is not approved during the lame-duck. “You see these reports that they’re going to walk away from the treaty,” said Stephen G. Rademaker, a former nonproliferation official in the Bush administration. “That’s simply ludicrous. The treaty is totally in their interest. Their negotiators did a fantastic job of getting what they want.”
The administration and its allies believe they have about a dozen Republican votes, enough to meet the two-thirds requirement for passage, if they can reach agreement with Senator Jon Kyl of Arizona, who has been holding out in exchange for commitments to modernize the nuclear arsenal. Senate Republican aides said the treaty would pass as long as Mr. Kyl was satisfied.
Democrats included money for the first year of a 10-year modernization program in the stopgap spending resolution that is now keeping the government operating, virtually the only spending increase included in the measure. But they may threaten to take it out of the next stopgap resolution, due Dec. 3, if the Senate does not act on the treaty.
Mr. Kyl would not comment, but his spokesman said he was still waiting for more assurances from the administration.
Daryl G. Kimball, head of the Arms Control Association, said time was essential because nuclear arms inspections halted a year ago with the expiration of the first Start treaty. “The more time goes by without that, the less we know about Russia’s strategic forces,” he said.
Congress also has a say in two other central elements in Mr. Obama’s Russia policy. The president has revived a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement negotiated by President George W. Bush. Under the law, Congress has 90 days to reject the agreement or it goes into effect.
But the clock runs only when Congress is in session and about two weeks remain to meet the 90-day requirement. If lawmakers do not remain in lame-duck session that long, Mr. Obama would have to resubmit it next year and restart the clock. Administration officials fear the newly strengthened Republican skeptics could attach conditions that would be difficult if not impossible to meet.
The other Obama initiative has yet to be sent to Congress. To finally admit Russia into the World Trade Organization, the administration wants to lift the Jackson-Vanik amendment to the trade act of 1974 that imposes restrictions on Moscow. Mr. Obama’s advisers worry that Republicans may use the issue as a proxy debate about Russia, essentially stalling or blocking Moscow’s entry into the W.T.O.
The threat to Mr. Obama’s reset policy comes as he prepares to meet with Mr. Medvedev next Sunday on the sidelines of an economic summit meeting in Japan. The lame-duck session of Congress opens the next day.
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